BJP's OBC Electoral Mastery in UP: Can PDA Emerge as a Challenger to the NDA?

Lucknow: Since 2014, the BJP has consistently commanded more than 40% of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, aided by the consolidation of votes over the past decade. The party draws support from diverse sections of society, including a significant portion from OBC and SC categories.

The OBCs in UP constitute a substantial portion of the population, playing a crucial role in the state's social and political landscape. It's important to note that the OBC category is not homogeneous, encompassing various castes and communities, each with its distinct identity and socio-economic characteristics.

Political representation and influence of the OBC community in UP have been significant, with different sub-groups aligning with different political parties based on local and regional considerations. With approximately 42-45% OBC voters in UP, the BJP has actively targeted non-Yadav OBCs, who make up 32-35% of the OBC votes.

The BJP has successfully attracted non-Yadav OBC votes through social welfare schemes, adequate representation in the cabinet, and alliances with OBC parties like Apna Dal (Sonelal Patel). In the 2022 Assembly Elections, the BJP-led alliance secured 41.4% of the votes, winning around 275 seats.

Can the PDA alliance counter the NDA alliance?

Akhilesh Yadav floated the PDA (Pichda Dalit Alpasankhyak) in 2023 to weave a coalition of SC/ST/OBC and religious minorities, constituting about 70-80% of the society. On August 9th, Akhilesh kicked off a PDA cycle yatra from Prayagraj, reaching Saifai on November 22, 2023, on the occasion of the birth anniversary of the party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The party has battled the perception of being a Yadav-only party. The Mooknayak spoke to Rajpal Kashyap, the state president of Pichda Varg Prakoshtha (OBC Cell), who rebuffed the claim and said, "Had the Samajwadi party been a Yadav-only party, it would not have received 36% of the votes. We are conducting PDA panchayats in every district and sensitizing people about the anti-dalit, anti-pichda policies of the BJP government."the alleged anti-dalit and anti-pichda policies of the BJP government.

Bahujan Samaj Party: Struggling to Retain Its Vote Bank

The BSP, a national party, has borne the worst impact of post-2014 politics. The party drew a blank in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections despite securing 20% of the votes. In 2017, it won only 19 seats out of the total 403 seats in the assembly, with the party securing 22% of the votes. The 2017 elections were a significant setback for the party, as it hoped to storm to power on the back of strong Muslim support, anticipated by the party. However, the party could not secure Muslim votes in large numbers as they sided with the Samajwadi Party.

In 2019, the BSP entered into an alliance with the Samajwadi Party and RLD, winning 10 seats. However, going to the polls alone in the 2022 assembly elections proved costly, with the party winning only one seat and securing just 12.88% of the votes. Analysts believe that the party has lost its support base among Dalits, with the only group supporting the party being the Jatav community.

The Jatav community is a significant Scheduled Caste group in Uttar Pradesh, India, accounting for around 14% of the state's population and around 2/3rd of the total scheduled caste population (SCs form 21% of the state's population). The party is leaving no stone unturned to claw back its Dalit voters. The BSP also recognizes that it won't be able to make a significant difference unless it adds the OBC community. Therefore, the party appointed Vishwanath Pal, an OBC, as its state president in 2023.

A few days back, the party organized a large Pal/Gaderiya sammelan in Muzaffarnagar, attended by Vishwanath Pal, who also happens to be a Pal/Gaderiya, a community with a sizeable vote share in many pockets.

Speaking to The Mooknayak, Vishwanath Pal said, "It is wrong to say that the non-Jatav is not with us." He pointed out that his party received more than 1 lakh votes in Agra and around 80-90 thousand votes in Jalalpur of Ambedkar. "BSP would not have received so many votes in such places had it been confined to one community. I am conducting public meetings at the ground level, and there is a good response from people from all walks of life, be it SC/ST/OBC religious minority, or even the poor people from the upper caste supporting us."

However, a party functionary from the Lucknow zone told The Mooknayak on the condition of anonymity, "People in the party are concerned about the dwindling support base, but efforts are underway to mobilize the support of people from all sections of society, particularly SC/ST/OBC and Muslims."

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