New Delhi: A famous saying in Purvanchal (eastern Uttar Pradesh) goes, “Na khelab, na khele deb…khelve bigaad deb (I will neither play, nor will let others play. I will spoil the game).” Similar is the condition of Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the state. Known for declaring candidates months ahead of polls, the party is seemingly silent this time before the general elections — will be held from April 19 to June 1 in seven phases. 

After announcing the names of the candidates so long ago, the party also used to change its nominees for most of the seats 3-4 times till nominations are over. Its chief Mayawati herself used to hold massive election rallies and set narratives for her opponents to respond. 

Surprisingly, this time, she is silent. Her party headquarter in Lucknow is deserted. BSP’s blue flags are missing. There seems to be no excitement in the party workers. The BSP has not so far held even a single rally and has not released any list of candidates.

Though six names (four Muslims and two Hindus) of probable candidates have come to the fore, yet there is no official announcement in this regard. By fielding candidates from the minority group on seats where there is a significant Muslim population, if the information is correct, the BSP is expected to sabotage the ambitions of the INDIA alliance to consolidate Muslim votes in western Uttar Pradesh where candidates belonging to the minority community have emerged as the front-runners for at least five of the seven seats for which the names of the most likely contenders have been mentioned thus far.

The possible move is certain to unsettle the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP), which have teamed up in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

In the mayoral elections held in 2022, the BSP had given sleepless nights to SP by fielding Muslim candidates on 11 out of 17 seats. The SP tasted defeat in these seats.

Muslims constitute 19.26% (3.85 crore) of Uttar Pradesh’s total population — which stands at 19.98 crore. There are at least 20 Lok Sabha and 85-100 Assembly constituencies where the population of Muslim voters rage between 25-50%. Muslims form 20-25% of the total population of other 10 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats and 60 Assembly seats.

There are around 30 Lok Sabha constituencies and 150 Assembly segments in the state where Muslims decide electoral outcomes.      

In the previous general elections, when the BSP and SP contested in alliance, the two parties had fielded 12 Muslim candidates. In the 2022 Assembly polls, the SP-RLD-Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) alliance had fielded 63 Muslim candidates of whom 34 registered victory. 

While the BSP tickets to 86 candidates of the community, the Congress fielded 60. The BSP had given tickets to 19, 14 and 20 Muslim candidates in 2014, 2009 and 2002 elections respectively.

As per the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), in the 2017 Assembly elections, around 55% of Muslim votes went to the SP, 14% to the BSP, 33% to the Congress and around 2% to the BJP. 

In the 2012 Assembly elections, the SP got only 39% Muslim votes. In 2022, about 80% Muslim votes went in favor of the SP alliance.

Questions arise: why is Mayawati not announcing BSP’s candidates; what is she waiting for? 

The BSP, if sources are to be believed, is waiting for the final list of the SP and the Congress. “Once the SP-Congress coalition announces its candidates for all 80 seats, BSP’s list will be released,” two tall leaders of the party told The Mooknayak.

Political analysts are viewing the decision of wait and watch as an attempt to cause a dent to INDIA bloc’s prospects. In the 2022 Assembly elections, they argue, the BSP had caused a lot of damage to SP by fielding Muslim candidates from Muslim majority seats.

Although Mayawati broke her long silence on March 10, yet she chose X (formerly Twitter) for it. She wrote that the BSP would go solo in Lok Sabha elections. Reports that the party is entering into any alliance or forming a third front, she said, is nothing but misinformation. She accused the Opposition of spreading the “rumours” to “misguide people

The Party in Disarray

In search of greener pastures ahead of the elections, BSP MPs have begun jumping ship to join the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Ritesh Pandey, the party’s parliamentarian from Ambedkar Nagar, resigned from the BSP and joined the saffron brigade on February 25.

The analysts believe that Mayawati’s prolonged political inactiveness and her party’s reluctance to join the Congress-led INDIA alliance are among key reasons why MPs are snapping ties.

Several MPs of the party appear to share this opinion. Out of the 10 BSP lawmakers, four have either switched sides or indicated that they intend to do so. While two more MPs are expected to change their allegiance, one who is from western Uttar Pradesh is in talks with Jayant Choudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has returned to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold.

BSP MP Sangeeta Azad might follow suit and join the BJP. She was spotted outside the office of Union Home Minister Amit Shah with her spouse during the recently concluded Budget Session.

The SP too poached Afzal Ansari, a BSP MP, in January to contest the election on its symbol from Ghazipur.

BSP MP from Amroha, Danish Ali was suspended by the party for defending Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra in the cash-for-query case. He had earlier opined that the Opposition should come together for the 2024 elections. After participating in the Congress’ Bharat Jodo Nayay Yatra and having met Sonia Gandhi, he is expected to join the grand old party. 

On March 14, Gandhi received Ali at her 10 Janpath residence. Ali hinted that he may run for the Amroha seat in the forthcoming elections in a post on the social networking site X that included a photo of him and the Congress leader.

Because of its ties to the SP, the BSP was able to win 10 seats in the 2019 elections — which is a huge improvement from drawing blanks in 2014 polls.

Taking note of the trend, Mayawati attempted to suggest that the MPs who defected to other parties were unlikely to get tickets since they had not contributed to their respective constituencies and that the media should not portray this as a sign of the BSP’s weakness.

When sought for his comment, Girish Chandra, BSP’s floor leader in the Lok Sabha, told The Mooknayak, “There is no effect of defections on our party. Everyone who has left or plans to leave is acting in their own self-interest. Under Behenji’s leadership, the BSP is working for the Bahujan samaj (Dalit castes) and will continue to do so.”

Eye on Rebels From Other Parties?

Those close to the party said the BSP is keeping an eye on ticket distribution and potential rebellions in other parties. “The BSP is also eyeing those leaders who were denied tickets by the BJP, the SP and the Congress. If the contenders of the BJP, the SP and the Congress tickets fail, they will also be nominated by the party,” one of them said.

Asked about the apparent inactiveness of the party leadership in this election season and delay in ticket distribution, he said in the previous Lok Sabha elections, due to its alliance with the SP, the BSP could not field its candidates on more than half of the seats in the state.

“Therefore, this time, the party is selecting candidates afresh which is taking time,” he claimed.

Asked about defection and the allegation that no party meeting has been held and the leadership is inaccessible, he said, “Those who switched to other parties had already made their minds and were in contact with the outfit. People come and go. It’s not a big deal as it keeps happening in politics. The party appointed observers and took complete ground feedback on all 10 Lok Sabha seats (which has its MPs). It has been discussed in core committee meetings.” 

Asked if the BSP’s entire focus is on Dalit and Muslim voters, he dodged the question, saying the party does not believe in the politics of polarisation whether on the basis of religion or caste.

'Top Scorers to be Preferred'

Mayawati, according to sources, has held meetings with her party’s division and sector heads before selection of candidates. 

“The party is preferring those who had got over 2 lakh votes in previous elections. There are a dozen of such contenders. On seats where such scorers are not available, the party has decided to give tickets to its zonal coordinators. Their list has also been submitted to the party supremo,” said two functionaries of the party who are close to the development.

BSP chief has announced to contest the elections alone, but the truth is that, till now, no smaller regional party has approached the BSP for an alliance. The defectants of other parties are also hesitant about joining the Mayawati-led party.