Recent incidents, such as the audacious murder in a Patna hospital ICU where five armed men killed an alleged criminal, have shocked Bihar. The state has witnessed a string of high-profile crimes, including the murders of political leaders, some affiliated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as well as contractors and businessmen. National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data reveals an 80.02% surge in criminal cases in Bihar from 2015 to 2024, far outpacing the national average of 23.7%. In the first half of 2025, 1.91 lakh crimes were registered, with violent crimes like murder exceeding national rates.

Political analyst Aku Srivastav draws parallels to the "Jungle Raj" era under Lalu Yadav (1990–2005), marked by 118 massacres, over 5,000 kidnappings for ransom, and 12,000 reported rapes. He questions whether the current crime wave undermines Nitish's long-standing claim of having restored order after that chaotic period. Can Nitish convince voters that his government is not sliding back into lawlessness?

Tejashwi Yadav, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader, has launched a blistering offensive against Nitish’s government. In public statements, he described Bihar as a state where "criminals have become emperors," accusing Nitish of being a "comatose chief minister" incapable of governance. Highlighting incidents like the gang-rape in an ambulance in Gaya, Tejashwi called it "the most shameful event in Bihar’s history." On X, his brother Tej Pratap Yadav posted, "Bihar’s law and order have completely collapsed. Criminals roam freely while Nitish sleeps."

Srivastav notes that Tejashwi’s aggressive campaign aims to exploit public discontent, but his family’s association with the "Jungle Raj" era remains a hurdle. Will Tejashwi’s attacks resonate with a new generation of voters, or will his family’s past overshadow his promises of change?

The NDA coalition is showing signs of strain, with Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) chief and Union Minister Chirag Paswan openly criticizing Nitish. Paswan expressed regret for supporting a government where "crime has become uncontrollable," stating on X, "The administration has surrendered to criminals. How many more Biharis will be killed?" He cited specific cases, like the murders of Himanshu Paswan and Anu Kumar in Nalanda, and questioned the Bihar Police’s effectiveness, even expressing "shame" for backing an "ineffective" administration.

Paswan’s dissent is a strategic move to appeal to Dalit and backward caste voters while positioning himself as a potential chief ministerial candidate. Can Nitish maintain coalition unity in the face of such public criticism from an ally?

Nitish Kumar, in power for nearly 20 years, has historically relied on contrasting his governance with the "Jungle Raj" of Lalu Yadav’s era. His first term saw notable efforts to restore law and order, earning him the "Sushasan Babu" title. However, Srivastav argues that subsequent terms have been less effective, with recent crime surges and a Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report exposing ₹70,877 crore in unaccounted funds damaging his credibility.

The government’s defense has been weak. Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha blamed sand, liquor, and land mafias for the crime spike, while Director General of Police Vinay Kumar controversially linked increased murders in May–July to farmers’ holiday periods. The ruling coalition also alleges opposition-orchestrated crimes to tarnish the government’s image, a claim Paswan partially supported but insisted requires action. Jitan Ram Manjhi, another NDA ally, defended the police’s record but failed to counter the broader narrative of failure. Can Nitish’s team mount a convincing defense to restore public trust?

Nitish has long used the fear of "Jungle Raj" to rally voters, reminding them of the lawlessness under Lalu Yadav. Srivastav questions whether this strategy will remain effective with a new generation that has not experienced the 1990s but is witnessing brazen crimes under Nitish’s watch. With the Janata Dal (United) weakened and the BJP strengthening its foothold, can Nitish leverage this narrative to secure another term, or will voters demand accountability for current failures?

The political landscape is further complicated by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which positions itself as an alternative to the Nitish-Lalu binary. Kishor blames both leaders for Bihar’s woes, crime, unemployment, and corruption, appealing to educated youth and those disillusioned by caste politics. While his lack of a caste base may limit his electoral success, Srivastav suggests he could split votes from both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. Can Kishor disrupt Bihar’s entrenched political dynamics, or will traditional caste-based alliances prevail?

As Bihar heads toward the 2025 elections, Nitish Kumar faces a critical test. The surge in crime, internal NDA dissent, and Tejashwi Yadav’s relentless attacks threaten his "Sushasan Babu" legacy. This analysis highlights the growing skepticism among voters, particularly the younger generation, who are less swayed by the "Jungle Raj" narrative. With corruption allegations and a faltering coalition adding to his woes, the question remains: Can Nitish Kumar overcome these governance failures and retain power, or will Bihar’s electorate seek a new path forward?