Rajasthan Elections 2023: Exit Polls Signal a Fierce Battle, Leaving Analysts in Disarray

The majority of exit polls seem to signal a continuation of the tradition of government alteration in Rajasthan. As the nation awaits the conclusive results, the story of Rajasthan's electoral saga unfolds against a backdrop of contrasting predictions, where clarity seems elusive, and surprises linger at every turn.
Chief Minister Gehlot met with Governor Karaj Mishra to discuss crucial state matters on Thursday.
Chief Minister Gehlot met with Governor Karaj Mishra to discuss crucial state matters on Thursday.

Jaipur- As the eagerly awaited day of December 3 approaches, Rajasthan finds itself at the epicenter of political speculation and intrigue following the elections held on November 25. The intricate dance of democracy in the state has left analysts grappling with the unexpected, as shifts in voting percentages in both rural and urban areas disrupt established political calculations.

While most exit polls suggest a perpetuation of the tradition of government alteration in Rajasthan, the path to victory for the saffron party appears challenging, with projections ranging from 95 to 105 seats, leaving Congress in a relatively less disadvantageous position.

In the midst of claims and counterclaims, the Phalodi Satta Bazaar adds its own unique narrative to the unfolding drama, with market prices pointing towards a potential change in power dynamics. As the nation awaits the conclusive results, the story of Rajasthan's electoral saga unfolds against a backdrop of contrasting predictions, where clarity seems elusive, and surprises linger at every turn.

Before the anticipated vote count, conflicting claims abound regarding the election outcome in Rajasthan, with some confidently predicting a decisive majority for the BJP, while others foresee a potential change in power dynamics.

Eight distinct exit polls have cast a diverse narrative for the Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023. While five polls emphatically assert a substantial shift in the state's political landscape, three polls depict Congress as the force altering the tradition of changing governments. Both major parties find themselves on the brink of an absolute majority, yet the status of smaller parties remains uncertain. Exit poll figures detailing the fate of BAP, BSP, ASP, RLP, and rebels from the major parties add another layer of uncertainty. The claims of these smaller political entities cannot be dismissed, adding intrigue to the post-election scenario.

Political experts and analysts are engaged in speculation about the prospective government formation, each employing their own political calculations. Assertions of a clear BJP majority clash with narratives anticipating a departure from the tradition of power changes in Rajasthan.

The Phalodi Satta Bazaar in Rajasthan, known for influencing national politics with its government formation predictions, has seen significant activity. Historical market prices, both before and after voting, offer insights into the potential government formation. Presently, market prices suggest a shift in power in Rajasthan.

However, the increased voting percentage in Rajasthan compared to previous elections has complicated analysts' predictions. Historically, a higher voting percentage has favoured the BJP, raising expectations that the party may secure a clear mandate with victory in 110 to 120 seats.

Conversely, analysts express reservations about the reliability of voting percentage estimates. Analysis indicates a decline in urban voting percentages compared to rural areas, causing concern for the BJP. While urban voters seem to favour the BJP, rural voters appear to align with the current government, giving the Congress hope for a return to power.

Notably, the newly formed Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP) has emerged as a strong contender in South Rajasthan, disrupting the political equations for Congress and BJP on 8 to 10 seats. BAP has reportedly inflicted more damage on Congress than BJP, contributing to the latter's advantage in South Rajasthan. Additionally, BJP's anticipated success in Eastern Rajasthan, with support from Gurjar voters, is predicted to secure 39 seats, marking a significant improvement from the previous election.

Assertions of a clear BJP majority clash with narratives anticipating a departure from the tradition of power changes in Rajasthan.
Assertions of a clear BJP majority clash with narratives anticipating a departure from the tradition of power changes in Rajasthan.

Prof Sanjay Lodha, Rajasthan Co-ordinator Dr Sanjay Lodha, Rajasthan state coordinator, Lokniti-CSDS, says " according to the Lokniti post poll study, BJP seems to be coming to power in Rajasthan and MP. BJP lead in Rajasthan is about 3% and in MP it is about 1%. Congress will comfortably form government in Telangana and Chhattisgarh with an edge of 2 to 3%. The margin of error is 1 to 3%.

Contrary to prevailing opinions, Dr. Dinesh Gehlot, Director of the Ambedkar Study Centre at Jai Narain Vyas University in Jodhpur, offers a distinctive perspective on the upcoming Rajasthan Elections 2023. In an exclusive conversation with The Mooknayak, Dr. Gehlot contends that, based on his analysis, the Congress government appears poised for a return to power. He attributes this projection to the widespread appreciation of the party's welfare schemes among the general populace.

Dr. Gehlot acknowledges that while certain exit polls, notably one conducted by scholars from Delhi University, suggest a leaning towards BJP's victory, he underscores a noteworthy revelation from youth voters. According to his assessment, the youth demographic allocates a substantial 80 seats to the Congress, signalling a remarkably positive indication for the party. Notably, Dr. Gehlot emphasizes that youth, who aren't beneficiaries of other existing schemes, recognize the tangible impact of Congress's initiatives, providing a distinct advantage to the party.

Political enthusiasts are also skeptical about the potential government flip in Rajasthan as indicated by exit polls. If such a transition occurs, it raises questions about why people opt for a change in government even in the absence of apparent anti-incumbency sentiments. A surge in voting percentages in Muslim areas favours Congress, yet the notable shift among tribal voters, coupled with disillusionment towards both major parties, positions the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) with a distinct advantage specially in the tribal dominant districts of South Rajasthan like Udaipur, Banswara , Dungarpur, Pratapgarh etc.

Betting accuracy of the Phalodi Satta Bazar

The Phalodi Satta Bazaar has gained credibility for accurate predictions, as evidenced by its successful forecasts in Karnataka, Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh elections. Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi acknowledged the betting market's accuracy in a social media post.

The current betting market in Phalodi indicates higher odds for Congress, suggesting expectations of a BJP government formation. However, some speculators propose the formation of a coalition government in Rajasthan, involving organizations like BAP, ASP, RLP, BSP, along with independents, rather than a BJP or Congress-led government. Despite this claim, public acceptance of such a scenario remains uncertain.

The Phalodi betting market has not only predicted majority outcomes but has also made claims about key seats, including those of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Assembly Speaker CP Joshi, Sachin Pilot, BJP MP Rajvardhan Rathod, Diya Kumari, and Satish Poonia. According to the latest market update, the trend favors these political figures. The actual results will only be known on December 3.

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