2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Is Mayawati the Biggest 'Insurance Policy' the BJP has in UP?

New Delhi: There is a famous saying in Indian politics that the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh — a state with significant political influence as it sends the highest number of lawmakers in the 545-member Lok Sabha.

With the 2024 general elections nearing, any party hoping to form a government in the Centre needs to concentrate on making a strong showing in the Hindi heartland. 

As predicted by the India Today Mood of the Nation survey, around 70 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats are up for grabs for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while holding onto its 51% vote share or increasing it marginally by 1% to settle at 52%. 

The BJP — which is seeking a third consecutive term in New Delhi, with Narendra Modi holding the office of prime minister — had secured 62 seats along with its ally Apna Dal (S) that had bagged two seats in the 2019 election.

The INDIA alliance (the Congress and the Samajwadi Party combine) in the state is expected to take its vote share 36% — a significant rise of 10% if compared to the previous poll.

The strike rate of others may go down 12% in 2024 from 23% in 2019.

If this is the result as projected by the India Today CVoter survey, the keys of New Delhi are clearly in the hands of the BJP or Prime Minister Modi to be precise.

Talking to The Mooknayak, experts weighed in on the survey’s findings. If the numbers are something to rely on, they stated, the BJP is no doubt on its way. But at the same time, they tripped down the memory because Modi has made a big claim: the National Democratic Alliance (NDA — a ruling coalition of the BJP and several regional parties in the Centre) will bag more than 400 seats, with the saffron party alone crossing 370 seats.

If one looks back, they pointed out, the only person who managed to do so was the late Rajiv Gandhi. The grand old Congress party under the leadership of the former prime minister won 405 seats in the 1984 general elections. The tally subsequently rose to 414 when Assam and Punjab were added on.

“At that time, the Congress had won 82 out of 85 seats in undivided Uttar Pradesh. It was a sweep,” they recalled, saying if one goes by these figures (as predicted by the survey) and sticks to the projected 52% vote share, the BJP has already secured its maximum in the state. It would have to pour in all its resources, giving other states a damn, if it wants the target of 370.

But these two elections are different because the 1984 election was held in the aftermath of the assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The Congress party managed to register such a massive victory largely on a sympathy wave. But Prime Minister Modi has been in power for the past 10 years not because of sympathy or empathy votes. There are surely some other factors at play.

BJP Gaining at the Cost of BSP?

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari opined if these numbers hold true, whatever is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s loss of 10 seats is largely adding to the tally of the BJP.

“The BJP is getting an extra 10 seats this year at the expense of the BSP. It’s largely a pro-incumbency vote; it’s a pro-development vote; it’s a pro-Modi vote; and it's a vote for his policies,” he said.

Uttar Pradesh for a long time — nearly 30 years — was completely fragmented. Since 2014, the BJP began dominating the state in two general elections and two Assembly elections and now it’s the third Lok Sabha poll. 

Is the BJP entering Uttar Pradesh much like it made a foray into Gujarat as the most dominant party with 52% or more vote share?

“Absolutely,” agreed Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, explaining the reasons behind the fragmentation in early 1990s and 2012.

“One among other reasons is: there were at least four prominent players in the state’s politics at that time — the BJP, the Congress, the SP and the BSP. The two regional parties, the SP and the BSP, were very strong those days. But over a period of time, both the Congress and the BSP declined. This time, the BSP is completely moving out of the picture and it is still holding on to 10% vote share. It means, the projected number for the BJP could be well above 75 seats,” he said.

Asked if it reflects the continuing trend of the elections becoming bi-polar (the BJP on one side against the much weaker SP on the other side) as the BSP — according to the survey — will come down to 8% from 19% in 2019 despite the fact that the Mayawati-led outfit in 2007 had won over 200 seats in the Assembly election. How has the BSP seeded ground to now become a rump?

Noted psephologist Sanjay Kumar, who has served as the director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), explains the trend. 

“We need to understand why elections are becoming bi-polar not only in UP, but in Bihar and many other states. I get a sense that the entire election (be it of Lok Sabha or state assemblies) is now contested in the name of Prime Minister Modi. I don’t see the upcoming election as a battle between Modi and (Congress leader) Rahul Gandhi or Modi versus any other leader. This is a referendum on Modi’s performance. People are divided on two axis — pro and anti-Modi. The elections are becoming largely not only on issues of people’s concerns but on this factor. If one is pro-Modi, he/she tends to align with the BJP; if anti-Modi, you tend to align with the Congress; and if you are neither aligning the BJP nor the Congress, you go solo. This is what is happening in Uttar Pradesh,” he said.

What about the Congress-led INDIA block? Even if the BSP ties with the Opposition alliance, the Congress-led coalition seems to be bending the race with one hand tied behind its back.

Veteran journalist Rashid Kidwai, a political commentator who often appears on television and quoted in newspapers as political commentator, has a “sense of despondency”.

“(BSP chief) Mayawati is the biggest insurance policy that the BJP has in Uttar Pradesh. This is why, the 10% votes, which should have gone to the INDIA block to make a material difference, seems to be going in favour of the BJP,” he lashed out.

When pointed out that even the BSP goes with the Opposition fold, it won’t be able to make any difference as the 10% vote share of the former is added to the projected strike rate of the Congress and the SP combine, it goes up to 46% — 6% down if compared to the NDA, all the experts voiced the same.

“The BJP is a dominant party in Uttar Pradesh, and there is no doubt about it. All other parties are basically trying to compete for the same anti-BJP that exists. So, even if they come together, they are actually consolidating the anti-BJP votes. The BJP votes, once it is crossing 50% or even if it comes down 48% tomorrow, the saffron party is set to secure well over 60 seats,” they concluded.

Also Read-