New Delhi: Five hours after releasing the first list of candidates, comprising 16 names, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) announced a second list of its 25 nominees for the Lok Sabha elections — which is scheduled to be held in seven phases between April 19 and June 1.

The two lists also include candidates for the eight parliamentary seats that would go to polls in the first phase on April 19. 

The party will contest the national election under the supervision of its All India General Secretary Satish Mishra and Mayawati’s successor Akash Anand. The party chief will not contest the polls to ensure victory of her candidates. 

Of the total 41 candidates in first and second list, 14 are Muslims, nine each belong to the Brahmin and Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) communities, four are Kshatriyas and the remaining 12 are from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) — which include Jats, Gujjars, Yadavas, etc. 

The party released nine more candidates in a second list later in the day on March 24. It has nine names — four of whom are SCs, two Brahmins and three OBCs.

The party has nominated only three women so far.

The BSP’s apparent focus on Muslims may puncture Akhilesh Yadav’s cycle, the electoral symbol of his Samajwadi Party (SP), which is contesting in an alliance with the Congress under the umbrella of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

It is worth noticing that the party’s decision to give Muslim contenders a preference points to the emergence of a triangular electoral tussle.

Among the prominent nominations, Dara Singh Prajapati and Shripal Singh will vie for Muzaffarnagar and Kairana seats respectively, while Majid Ali secures the BSP ticket for Saharanpur. 

Other key candidates include Mohammad Irfan Saifi (Moradabad), Surendra Pal Singh (Nagina, SC) and Vijendra Singh (Bijnaur). 

In Meerut, Devvratt Tyagi emerges as the BSP’s candidate, joined by Mujahid Hussain (Amroha), Shaukat Ali (Sambhal) and Zeeshan Khan (Rampur).

In addition, Dodaram Verma is slated to contest from Shahjahanpur (SC), Anis Ahmad Khan from Pilibhit, Abid Ali from Aonla, Girish Chandra Jatav from Bulandshahr (SC), Rajendra Singh Solanki from Gautam Buddh Nagar and Praveen Bansal from Baghpat.

Those whose names feature in the list of the nine candidates later in the day are Suresh Chandra Gautam from Jalaun (SC seat), Rajesh Kumar Dwivedi from Akbarpur, Kuldeep Bhadauria from Kanpur, Sarika Singh Baghel from Etawah (SC seat), Satyendra Jain Sauli from Firozabad, Ram Nivas Sharma from Fatehpur Sikri, Pooja Amrohi from Agra (SC seat), Kamal Kant Upmanyu from Mathura and Hembabu Dhangar from Hathras (SC seat).

Understand BSP’s ticket distribution so far like this: Muslims (26.41%), Brahmins (16.98%), Dalits (16.98%), OBCs (22.64%), Vaishyas (7.54%) and others (9.43%). 

Focus on Muslims

Most of the seats in western Uttar Pradesh are Muslim concentrated. And perhaps, therefore, Mayawati has given seven of the total 16 seats in the region to Muslims. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the alliance between the BSP, SP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) too had given seven tickets to candidates from the minority community from here. Four of them had contested on BSP tickets.

Moradabad and Saharanpur districts each have around 55% Muslim voters, while Rampur has 60%. Similarly, Sambhal has 77.67%, Amroha has 40.78% and Pilibhit has 25% Muslim population.

Declining Vote Share

BSP’s vote share in Uttar Pradesh has been continuously declining for the past three Lok Sabha elections. In 2009, the party got 27.4% votes. This declined to 19.8% in 2014. In 2019, despite an alliance with the SP and the RLD, it got 19.4% votes. The party’s worst ever performance in terms of vote share was in 2022 when it dropped to just 12.8% in the Assembly election. As a result, the BSP could win only one out of 403 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly. 

This is the lowest figure of BSP’s vote share since 1993. In the elections held between 1993 and 2022, the Mayawati-led party’s vote share has never been less than 19%.