Significant for BSP’s Survival, How Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will Determine Future of Dalit Politics in UP

New Delhi: With the Uttar Pradesh-based Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) opting to run alone in the general election of 2024 — which will be held in seven phases between April 19 to June 1, the Mayawati-led political outfit has set the stage for a three-cornered contest in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh.

This election is significant for the BSP because, going forward, it will shape Dalit politics in the state. After forming a majority government in the state post 2007 Assembly elections, the party’s support base and votes has been continuously declining.

In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BSP’s vote share fell to 12.88% from 30.43% in 2007. However, because of the unwavering support of the Jatav group, which makes up the majority of the state’s 23% Dalit voters, it continues to be a powerful force in UP politics.

In the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, it remains to be seen if the BSP — which has the support of the Dalit community — will be able to solidify its position this time around or if the BJP, which gained support from the Dalit community during the 2019 elections, will be able to breach the previous BSP fort by gaining the Jatav community’s support.

In an effort to gain the support of Dalits and numerically significant Other Backward Class (OBC), the Samajwadi Party (SP) — principal Opposition in the state assembly — is also working on the “Pichda” (backward), Dalit and “Alpsankhyak” (minority) formula. In order to gain seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP is also focusing on the Dalit-Muslim-OBC combination.

Sources in the party told The Mooknayak that Muslim candidates would be fielded in Rohilkhand’s Muslim-majority constituencies. Among them, they said, are Majid Ali from the Saharanpur constituency, Anish Ahmed Khan, popularly known as Phool Babu, from Pilibhit, Dr Mujahid Hussain from Amroha and Irfan Saifi from Moradabad.

The decision, if it has been officially made, is surely not good news for the SP as it may cause a dent in the Muslim support base of the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) of which the Akhilesh Yadav-led party is a major ally in Uttar Pradesh.

The party has often been criticised by its rivals for allegedly being a “vote katwa” (vote cropper or spoiler) in apparently a direct face-off between the INDIA bloc and the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

However, contrary to the perception, the BSP is learnt to have declared that it will field a Brahmin candidate from Ambedkar Nagar, a Dalit candidate from Agra and a Jat candidate from Bijnor — a move that is likely to upset the NDA’s plan at the same time.

Perhaps certain that the BSP would reclaim its influence over the Dalit community, Mayawati urged the followers to mobilise their resources for the Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati worked alongside BSP founder Kanshi Ram to expand the party’s support base in Uttar Pradesh following its formation in 1984.

On June 3, 1995, she scripted history by becoming the first Dalit woman to hold the Office of Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh. She achieved this feat after her mentor Kanshi Ram painstakingly formed a coalition of backward communities and Dalits as a churning of the Mandal movement.

She accomplished an even more remarkable political success in 2007 when she formed an unheard of coalition of Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims and walked to the corridors of power with absolute majority for the first time in nearly 10 years. But successive defeats in assembly and general elections after the five-year term indicated the party’s hold over Dalits was eroding. The reputation of the elephant — the BSP poll symbol — has been in ruins since then.

The state’s former ruling party lost ground to much smaller and hyperlocal parties like the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar, Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal or NISHAD party of Sanjay Nishad (a former BSP leader) and Apna Dal (Soneylal) or Apna Dal (S) of Anupriya Patel. All these political groups gained support by eating into the BSP’s OBC voter base. 

In December last year, Mayawati designated her nephew Akash Anand her political successor in an attempt to infuse fresh energy into the party organisation. She had previously named her brother Anand Kumar as national vice president of the party.

Leaders of rival parties hit back, alleging that Mayawati was promoting dynasty in the cadre-based party. Observers are of the opinion that if Mayawati wishes for a comeback, she will have to go to the basics: regroup Dalit-OBC communities and its foot soldiers in ticket distribution to stop defections.

However, it won’t be so easy to execute. The state’s politics are becoming more erratic, and the BSP is visibly fast losing ground. The BJP to a great extent has won over several Dalit communities by wooing them with welfare promises and grassroots party positions. These communities are no longer bound by ideology.

Turncoats getting BSP tickets deters the party’s old timers. The party is battling the perception that it is out of step with campaigns in the twenty-first century, and its story of restoring Dalits’ dignity seems to be fading.

Speaking on the occasion of Kashi Ram’s birth anniversary on March 15, Mayawati urged party workers to make a strong effort to ensure a favorable outcome in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections — stating that it would be a fitting homage to the party’s founder.

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