PM Modi Won from Varanasi: What Does Sharp Decline in Victory Margin Suggest?

Varanasi- Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third consecutive victory in the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat by a margin of 1,52,513 votes. His closest competitor, Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai, garnered over 3.7 lakh votes.

If his performance is compared with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, whom the prime minister had refused to even recognise during an interview with a private news channel during his campaign trail, is leading in Raebareli by over 3 lakh votes. He won in Kerala’s Wayanad by over 3 lakh votes.

Even Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, has by a margin of over 8 lakh votes.  

In the 2019 elections, Modi achieved a significantly larger margin, winning by 4.79 lakh votes with a total of 6,74,664 votes. The BSP’s Ather Jamal Lari is trailing far behind, indicating a consolidation of anti-BJP votes in favor of Rai from the INDIA alliance.

The 2024 contest in Varanasi featured six candidates challenging Modi from the eastern UP constituency, which was his stepping stone to the national political scene in 2014. Besides Rai and Lari, the other contenders included two Independents (Sanjay Kumar Tiwari and Dinesh Kumar Yadav), Kolisetty Shiva Kumar from the Yuga Thulasi Party and Gagan Prakash Yadav from the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi).

In the 2019 election, Modi had secured 63.6 percent of the vote. In 2014, Modi obtained 56.37 percent of the votes, defeating Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal by a margin of 3.72 lakh votes, with Ajay Rai finishing third.

The number of candidates opposing Modi has varied over the years: 41 candidates in 2014, 26 in 2019 and only 6 in 2024, despite 41 initially filing nomination forms.

The BJP has maintained a stronghold on the Varanasi seat since 1991, with the exception of 2004 when Congress’s Rajesh Mishra defeated BJP’s Shanker Prasad Jaiswal by 57,436 votes.

The reduction in Modi’s victory margin could impact his image.