Jaipur- As the Lok Sabha election fervor intensifies, an internal assessment by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suggests potential hurdles in realizing its Mission 25 in Rajasthan. The assessment comes amidst heightened anticipation surrounding the outcomes of all 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, polling for which was conducted in two phases on April 19 and April 26.
The BJP's comprehensive survey, in collaboration with various political entities at both state and national levels, raises concerns about potential losses on one or two seats in Rajasthan. The state leadership has promptly forwarded the detailed report to the party leaders and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, renowned as the party's strategic mastermind.
In April, the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll projected a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), forecasting that the party would secure all 25 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Conversely, the projection suggested that the Congress party was unlikely to secure any seats in the state, continuing its winless streak.
While at various political rallies in the past month, Amit Shah exuded confidence that the BJP will win all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, and the margin of victory will be much more than the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, the landscape may have shifted post-elections.
News Arena India reported from its social media handle on May 5 on Amit Shah admitting that BJP's tally in Rajasthan might reduce by one or two seats.
Earlier optimism regarding a triumphant sweep on all 25 seats seems to have encountered a reality check with the disclosure of the survey findings. The BJP's previous electoral success was underscored by a 'Lotus' bloom on 24 seats in 2019, with an additional seat secured by Hanuman Beniwal's Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, an ally within the NDA alliance. However, this time, apprehensions loom over maintaining such dominance, particularly with the emergence of formidable challenges.
Key highlights of the internal assessment indicate a potential shortfall in votes compared to the 2019 elections, particularly in regions such as Barmer, Banswara, and others. The survey points out that the BJP may face challenges in retaining all 25 seats, signalling a departure from the anticipated hat-trick of victories owing to prevalent undercurrents.
The BJP's perceived weak spots, including Dausa, Jhunjhunu, Barmer, Churu, Nagaur, Sikar, and Karauli-Dholpur, have been the focus of extensive strategizing and campaigning efforts. However, internal discord and complaints among local leaders have emerged as significant concerns, potentially undermining the party's electoral prospects in these regions.
Local and caste dynamics continue to wield considerable influence, especially in regions like Shekhawati and East Rajasthan, where BJP's performance has historically been lackluster.
Despite efforts to leverage the popularity of PM Narendra Modi and other star campaigners, the BJP grapples with the lingering impact of internal conflicts and inadequate resonance with key regional issues.
Political observers caution that BJP's aspirational Mission 25 might face formidable challenges this time around. Though party leaders, including Chief Minister Bhajanlal and his ministers, express confidence in a clean sweep, the internal assessment hints at the possibility of losing between 5 to 8 seats, reflecting the nuanced realities shaping the electoral landscape in Rajasthan.
One of the most interesting fights is at the tribal seat Banswara-Dungarpur in southern Rajasthan, where a tough battle ensues between BJP's Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya and BAP's Rajkumar Roat. The votes received by Congress candidate Arvind Sita Damor will decide victory or defeat.
Malviya and Roat are both claiming victory. However, voters assert that victory or defeat will be determined by the votes received by the Congress candidate. People speculate that if Congress candidate Damor secures more than one lakh votes, it will directly benefit the BJP candidate, whereas if he receives fewer than 50 thousand votes, it will benefit BAP candidate Roat.
Politicians express skepticism about the highest voting percentage recorded in Banswara-Dungarpur Lok Sabha seat, where 72.77 percent of voters cast their ballots.
Two reasons are being cited for this skepticism. Firstly, the constituency predominantly comprises rural voters, accounting for nearly 90 percent compared to urban voters, with a higher number of women voters. Narendra Kharadi of Dungarpur suggests that while candidates from BJP, BAP, and Congress held influence in their respective assembly constituencies, the symbol rather than the candidate's personal identity played a decisive role across the entire Lok Sabha constituency.
Consequently, even though Congress expelled its candidate Damor from the party, rural voters based their choices on the symbol rather than the individual candidate, which will ultimately determine victory or defeat based on the votes received by the Congress candidate.
Despite the relatively low activity of local organizations, BJP remains confident in Jodhpur, where Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is the candidate for the third consecutive time. However, Congress injected an element of intrigue into the contest by fielding Rajput candidate Karan Singh Uchiarada. Despite subdued local activity from both parties, a visible competition has emerged.
Both Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot have vested interests in the Jodhpur constituency. Shekhawat has clinched victory in Jodhpur twice, notably securing his latest win by defeating Gehlot's son, Vaibhav Gehlot, with a substantial margin of 2.74 lakh votes. Additionally, Gehlot's personal assembly segment is encompassed within this parliamentary constituency, further highlighting the political significance of Jodhpur for both leaders.
Despite setting a target of 75 percent voter turnout, BJP witnessed a lower-than-expected participation. Consequently, Congress is optimistic about its chances of victory, although its leaders are also raising concerns regarding allegations of fake voting and purported pressure on police and administration. Conversely, BJP leaders remain steadfast in their confidence, anticipating victory by a margin of approximately 1.5 to 2 lakh votes.
In the aftermath of voting in the tribal seat of Udaipur, internal sources indicate that the Congress harbors doubts about its chances of victory in this constituency. BJP's Mannalal Rawat's perceived advantage suggests a potentially challenging outcome for the Congress candidate and former IAS Tarachand Meena in the post-election scenario.
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