India Set to Surpass China as the Most Populous Nation in the World

There has been speculation that India may have overtaken China as the world's most populous nation. The World Population Review (WPR) has estimated that as of 2022, India had a population of 1.417 billion people. This is 5 million more than China's reported population of 1.412 billion as of January 2022, which marked a decrease since the 1960s. However, this claim remains contested, and there are other estimates that suggest China still has a larger population than India. 

This development of India overtaking China as the world's most populated country in 2023 is a significant demographic event for the entire globe to witness. The United Nations predicts that in April 2023, India's population will surpass China's. While the milestone itself may not be noteworthy, it highlights the different demographic trends between the two countries with the highest populations in the world.

For three centuries, China has been the most populous country in the world, except for empires, largely due to its vastness. China's population experienced rapid growth in the second half of the 20th century, as did the populations of many developing nations. However, the implementation of the one-child policy in 1980 fundamentally altered China's population growth pattern.

In contrast to China, India's population has continued to rise rapidly, going from 446 million in 1960 to 1.06 billion in 2000 to 1.407 billion in 2021. According to projections, India's population is expected to reach a peak of 1.7 billion in 2064, making it roughly 50% larger than China's projected population. The population expansion in India has been fueled by its growing economy, which recently replaced the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy.

According to the State Bank of India, India is expected to have the world's third-largest economy by 2029 largely due to its significant working-age population. The country's economic growth is also affected by changing manufacturing patterns as businesses are investing more in secondary locations, such as India, and shifting their focus away from China. However, there are several challenges that India must overcome to fully exploit its "demographic dividend."

Key population statistics for India, according to Pew Research Center of Data UN

Since the United Nations began collecting population statistics in 1950, India's population has surged by over 1 billion people. Although India has not conducted a census since 2011, it is believed that the nation's population has surpassed 1.4 billion. This means that India's population is larger than the combined populations of both the Americas, which have a total population of 1.04 billion, and Europe, which has a population of 744 million.

China also has a population of more than 1.4 billion people, but India's population is still growing, while China's is decreasing. About 40% of India's population is under the age of 25, which is such a large number that around one in five people below the age of 25 globally live in India. Another way to analyze the age distribution is by looking at the median age. India's median age is 28, while China's median age is 39, and the median age in the United States is 38.

China and the United States, which are the next two most populous nations in the world, have rapidly aging populations, unlike India. According to the United Nations, only 7% of adults in India are 65 years old or older, compared to 14% in China and 18% in the United States in the current year. According to the UN's medium variant projections, the proportion of Indians who are 65 years or older is expected to remain below 20% until 2063 and will not reach 30% until 2100.

India's fertility rate is higher than that of China and the United States, but it has been rapidly declining in recent decades. The average Indian woman is now projected to have two children in her lifetime, which is lower than the country's fertility rate in 1992 or in 1950. However, it is still higher than the fertility rates of China and the United States.

Despite a 70% decrease in the last 30 years, India's infant mortality rate is still high compared to both domestic and international standards. In 1990, there were 89 deaths per 1,000 live births; by 2020, that number had decreased to 27. The rate of infant deaths in India has decreased slowly but consistently, averaging between 0.1% and 0.5% annually since 1960, when the UN Interagency Committee for Child Mortality Estimation began collecting this data.

However, India's infant mortality rate is higher than that of its neighboring countries such as Bangladesh (24 deaths per 1,000 live births), Nepal (24), Bhutan (23), and Sri Lanka (6 deaths per 1,000 live births). Furthermore, India's infant mortality rate is significantly higher than that of its closest competitors in terms of population size, such as China (6) and the United States (5).

According to the UN Population Division, migration resulted in a loss of 3,00,000 individuals in India in 2021. The UN's medium variant projections suggest that India is expected to continue experiencing a net negative migration at least until 2100.

However, it is important to note that net migration in India has not always been negative. India gained an estimated 68,000 individuals due to migration in 2016. Throughout the latter half of the 20th century, India experienced several periods of increased net migration rates.