Chandigarh- Elections are scheduled to be held in Haryana on 5 October to elect all 90 members of the State Legislative Assembly. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on 8 October. With just days to go before the elections, the political landscape in the state is heating up.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite facing a clear anti-incumbency sentiment, is pulling out all stops to retain power for a third consecutive term. However, the party is grappling with complex caste equations and aiming to consolidate the non-Jat and Dalit vote bank to counter its challenges in rural areas.

On the other side, the Congress is struggling with internal divisions, which could play to the BJP's advantage, as factionalism within the opposition seems far from being resolved.

Facing an anti-incumbency wave, BJP’s strategy hinges on navigating Haryana’s intricate caste dynamics. The party has been actively working to consolidate non-Jat voters while attempting to split the Dalit vote to secure a respectable position in the elections. BJP’s performance in the recent 2024 Lok Sabha elections was underwhelming compared to its 2019 success, where it won all 10 seats in the state. In 2024, however, the Congress made a strong comeback, winning five of the 10 seats, including the two Scheduled Caste (SC) reserved seats in Ambala and Sirsa.

The BJP’s significant decline became more evident as it managed to lead in only four of the 17 Assembly segments reserved for SCs in the 2024 general elections, compared to 15 segments in 2019. Congress and its ally, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led in the majority of these reserved constituencies, signaling a potential shift in voter loyalty.

To win back Dalit support, Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has launched an accelerated outreach campaign targeting the marginalized sections, especially through initiatives like the B. R. Ambedkar housing scheme. The BJP is also focusing on Jatavs, Balmikis, Dhanaks, and other smaller Dalit communities to regain lost ground.

In addition to its focus on caste equations, BJP is leveraging its organizational strength in rural areas. The party has enlisted the help of the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) to strengthen its grassroots presence, particularly in rural constituencies, where Congress had a strong showing in the Lok Sabha elections.

Since September, the RSS has been running a rural voter outreach program, deploying 150 volunteers in each district to collaborate with local workers and engage voters through village meetings and Panchayat-level initiatives. This deep-rooted organizational network could give BJP an edge in regions where it has faced resistance due to the farmers' protests and other local issues.

Meanwhile, the Congress is wrestling with internal rifts that threaten to derail its electoral prospects. Despite efforts by Rahul Gandhi to unite the party during his recent rallies, factionalism remains a significant issue. The party is split into two camps—one led by Dalit leader Kumari Selja and the other by veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

The internal discord is not new to the Congress but poses a significant threat as the election nears. As Selja and Hooda camps clash over candidates and power dynamics, there is concern that these divisions will enable BJP to make inroads in rural areas and SC-dominated constituencies.

Former Women and Child Development Minister Kumari Selja, who has remained largely absent from campaigning, fears that the Hooda faction is strategically fielding rebel Congress candidates to weaken her loyalists' chances. "Internal divisions can be as destructive as external enemies," to borrow a sentiment from Sun Tzu’s Art of War, and this holds true for Congress at this critical juncture.

Despite these efforts, it’s clear that BJP is navigating challenging waters. Since its formation in 1966, no party has ever won a third consecutive term in Haryana. While the BJP is banking on the fragmentation of opposition votes to secure a victory, the multi-cornered contests across most constituencies mean the race is far from predictable.

"Politics is the art of the possible," as Otto von Bismarck once said, and in Haryana, this statement rings true as both BJP and Congress navigate the complex web of caste politics, rural discontent, and internal conflicts in their quest for power.

As the elections draw closer, the focus remains on how effectively BJP can counter anti-incumbency and capitalize on Congress's internal strife. Meanwhile, the Congress will need to address its divisions if it hopes to capitalize on BJP's vulnerabilities. The next few days will be crucial in determining the direction of the state’s political future.