— ✍️ Debjanee Ganguly

The Bengal battle of 2026 was about the SIR, polarization of votes along religious lines, anti-incumbency, insider-outsider politics, and other such things. But the cat was belled way back in 2021 when the BJP made a stunning rise from 3 seats to 77 seats. Some of the success is due to the relentless work undertaken by RSS cadres in Bengal, but it is also to be noted that the space is shared by equally dominant workers of Ramakrishna Mission and Bharat Sevashram Sangha on the ground. This obviously reduces the effectiveness of the RSS, which it usually enjoys in other states. A scattered network of RSS shakhas makes for a weak demand for BJP in the government. So what made the BJP so popular in Bengal?

Catapulting the BJP to fame

With a weakened opposition in 2016 and a strong grip on the common man, the TMC could have dreamed of decades-long electoral successes. But that was not to be. Ram-Baam-Shyam – BJP-CPIM-Congress respectively – were up against the mighty TMC in 2021. Anti-incumbency was moderately high even in 2021, but the usual arm-twisting tactics during elections invisibilized the disgruntlement. The BJP was till then a small and relatively new player in Bengal politics. Unfortunately, the TMC and the Left election strategy got heavily involved with maligning the BJP in their 2021 campaign – the No Vote to BJP. There is no such thing as bad publicity. That the TMC and the CPIM spent way too much time cutting down the BJP, which was still an emerging party, was surprising. By repeatedly emphasizing in the run-up to the 2021 elections the cons of having BJP in power in Bengal, the TMC brought its own nemesis to life. The added focus on the BJP worked in its favour, and it emerged as the prime opposition to the TMC post-2021. News channels and party campaigns crafted the Bengal challenge as a two-pronged one, as if the Left and other parties never existed in Bengal.

The Left legacy of the party-society, which was perfected under TMC rule, ensured that the TMC would come back with a bigger mandate than 2016 despite the growing dissent on the ground. Despite its presence on the ground still being patchy, the result of 2021 made it clear that the BJP had captured the minds of the people who were desperately looking for a way out of TMC goonda-ism. While the media focused on the failure of the BJP in 2021 against the backdrop of Amit Shah’s tall claims of “abki baar 200 paar”, what was missed was that the party increased its seats from 3 to 77 in a matter of just five years. There is a popular saying in Bengal – chup chap kamal chaap – silently vote for the BJP. That is precisely what happened in 2021 and later in 2026.

An Alternative is presented

The Left goondaism peaked in the last few terms that it ruled. People were sick of the constant threat from the parar dada (local dada) and the extortion racket at every point. They wanted poriborton – change. In 2011, Didi became the viable alternative to Left strong-arm tactics. What really did happen, though, was that apart from the top brass, all those hitherto aligned with the Left switched to the TMC, and along with them they took the Left-crafted party-society model. In short, nothing changed for the common citizen of Bengal – not the local dadas, nor their menacing ways.
Since the second term of the TMC, there was growing resentment against the local dadas and party workers of the TMC who were forever extracting money. The TMC sensed this resentment and took active measures to prevent the practice of taking cut-money. However, there were more scandals to unfold. Things started unraveling after the very public arrest of the Education Minister Partha Chatterjee, whose house was found stuffed with wads of notes. The party took the only step it could, completely washing its hands off the man and his unwisely stashed-away money. Unfortunately, thereafter, the TMC decided to engage in media management and court dates in the following scandals and arrests that took place.

By 2022, the TMC was grappling with one too many scams. The TMC's rallying cry became one of conspiracy, wherein a BJP hand was alleged behind every arrest and investigation. There is no denying that these tools are used by the Center to chip away at the image of rival parties. However, by pitching every investigation as a BJP-led conspiracy to malign the TMC, the former presented itself as a lesser evil for those who suffered from the SSC scam, the Ration scam, deprivation of welfare schemes, and the like. The four-year clash that ensued between the State and Center, TMC and BJP, was keenly observed by the citizens of Bengal.

Fierce battles were fought over the nomenclature of welfare schemes, ED officials being beaten up during a visit to Sandeshkhali, the Chief Minister walking off with a “green folder” during an ED raid, and the like. Bengal was making headlines on a daily basis. One after another, instances of State versus Center, State machinery versus Central law-enforcing bodies started playing out from 2022. Often the State machinery was deployed to protect political heavyweights like Anubrata Mondol, Shahjahan Sheikh, Jyoti Priya Mallick, and Sandip Ghosh. Reputation tarnished, the TMC, to recover from its fallen position, fought the General Election of 2024 stating that Didi was the face of all seats of Bengal. The people of Bengal were still able to dissociate her from her party workers, and with a little help from the local dadas, the TMC came back with an uncomfortable majority. The utter mismanagement of the RG Kar medical student rape and murder case, where mobs stormed into the crime scene, closely followed the 2024 General Election, but it was a cross the party had to bear in 2026. Even the bhadralok of Kolkata found it hard to look away from what was happening in his own backyard.

The politicization of these legal battles actually worked in favour of the BJP. The TMC party-society – a Bengal special model that emerged in the Left era – was up against the Gujarat model of Shah-Modi's centralized brand of politics. The battle over Bengal was bottom-up versus top-down politics.
For now, Bengal was witnessing two mighty forces: the Bengal model – one that operated in the very capillaries of society – the party people in every sector, lane, and organization watching closely – versus the Gujarat model – a top-down law-enforcing apparatus like the ED, CBI, CEC, and even the courts, which were often accused by the TMC of being allegedly BJP-backed. The SIR became just another battlefield, which also witnessed the gherao of judicial officers who were deployed to scrutinize SIR-related forms. It was a tussle for power that was being witnessed by the people of Bengal, who were looking for an alternative to the overbearing threat culture that had been going on for decades. Was there a force that could take care of the local dada breathing down the common man’s neck?

Repeated unsuccessful run-ins with the courts proved that there was a force that could challenge the oppressive and obviously morally degraded party. By staging everything as a BJP conspiracy, the TMC presented to the people of Bengal a credible alternative. By 2024, few people were buying the conspiracy angle, which had become the main pitch by Didi and her party. The tussle with the CEC, which was allegedly backed by the BJP in 2025, became just another clash of two models of power for the citizens of Bengal. The 2026 election battle saw an even stronger No Vote to BJP campaign unfold. There were whisper campaigns like – “Vote for the Left but do not vote for the BJP.” An electoral victory was thus gift-wrapped by the TMC and handed over to the BJP.

The final nail in the coffin

A month or less before the election, a video went viral. Didi was seen saying that if a particular lot of people did not vote for her, they would get finished off by another lot of people if they came together. So for their safety, they should vote for the TMC. This was widely interpreted as a threat to the Hindu Bengali population to vote for the TMC, else the Muslim Bengali population would crush them. This completely polarized the vote along religious lines. You cannot beat the BJP at its own game.
While the SIR had a role to play in the success of the BJP in 2026, the stupendous performance of the party has left more questions than answers. Questions the TMC must ask itself if it wants to survive in Bengal. The obsession with the BJP prior to 2021, even when it was a non-player, very likely presented to the people of Bengal an alternative to the heavy-handed politics of the TMC. Perhaps if the TMC had allowed the citizens of Bengal to vote freely in 2021, it might not have come back with the huge majority it did, but it would have been a necessary wake-up call to the party nevertheless.

With the BJP in power now, the TMC as opposition party must not only appear as anti-BJP but pro-Bengal. Meanwhile, the BJP in Bengal must tread carefully. The Hindu votes might have shifted to the BJP ranks, but the difference in vote share in 2026 is a mere 5 per cent. It must not be forgotten that the Bengali shares cultural and historical roots across the border. Berating Bangladesh or Muslim Bengalis might not find as much favour as it has in Assam. The vote is against the TMC dada, not so much against the average Muslim. A Left resurgence is likely in the new turn of events. The churn in Bengal politics has only just begun.

- The Author is Assistant Professor at Rammohan College, University of Calcutta.