— ✍️ Fardin Jahangeer & Dr. Karamala Areesh Kumar

On April 30, 2025, the Indian government announced a landmark decision to include caste in the upcoming national census. This is the first time since 1931 that caste will feature in such a survey, and the announcement came as a shock to not only the supporters of the ruling BJP but also to the opposition. For a party that has traditionally dismissed identity-based data collection as divisive, this sudden U-turn reveals more about its political desperation than its concern for social equity.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah attempted to frame the move positively, claiming that it would “empower all economically and socially backward classes, promote inclusion, and pave new paths for the progress of the deprived.” Yet, in a conflicting tone, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw criticised state-level caste censuses for lacking transparency. This contradictory messaging signals that the BJP’s caste census move is less about social justice and more about political manoeuvring.

One cannot ignore the timing. The declaration came on the heels of the Pahalgam terrorist attack, which claimed 26 lives, a national tragedy that might have warranted undivided government attention. Instead, the announcement has shifted public discourse to vote-bank calculations, especially with the Bihar elections on the horizon. Bihar, a state critical to the BJP-led NDA’s political hold in North India, has already conducted a state-level caste census and is known for its deep-seated caste dynamics. The ruling party knows that caste arithmetic can make or break electoral fortunes here.

Historically, the BJP has strategically exploited these dynamics, pitting communities such as the Yadavs against others like the Kalwar, Dhobi, Sonar, and Bania. The 2015 Bihar elections saw an explicit deployment of Hindutva and caste narratives, and similar tactics appear to be reemerging. With rising unemployment, inflation, and a sluggish response to crises like COVID-19 eroding public trust, particularly among OBCs, the BJP now seeks to repackage caste politics as a form of empowerment.

The move also reflects internal fractures within the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi contradicted the caste census narrative a day after Bihar’s caste data release. In a rally in Chhattisgarh, he stated, “Poor people should have the first rights over the country’s resources,” subtly questioning the caste-based census push, which the Congress has championed under the slogan “Jitni Aabadi, Utna Haq.” The mixed messaging has opened the BJP to ridicule, with Telangana CM Revanth Reddy mockingly claiming the BJP had been “inspired” by the Congress.

While the BJP frames the census as a tool for inclusion, the reality is starkly different. The move is a political chess piece, aimed at neutralising the Congress’s demands and eroding its traction ahead of elections in key northern states. It also seeks to shift the caste conversation on the BJP’s terms, projecting a sense of initiative while undermining Congress’s credibility. However, this risks alienating the BJP’s traditional upper-caste vote bank, a demographic that might view the census as threatening their sociopolitical standing.

The BJP's about-face also underlines the party’s inability to counter Congress’s narrative convincingly. The Modi regime’s critique of Congress's caste census proposal, such as highlighting the supposed marginalisation of southern states, remains superficial. With its "One Nation, One Election" idea still in limbo, the BJP’s failure to provide a coherent alternative only adds to the perception that its caste census move is reactive, not visionary.

In the end, this is not about inclusion or justice. It is about numbers—vote counts, not population counts. Narendra Modi, an OBC himself, has failed to deliver tangible upliftment for his community over three terms. His political strategies, once deemed masterstrokes, are no longer producing the same results. The caste census is now being weaponised to revive his waning connection with backwards communities.

This is not governance—it is electoral survival cloaked in the language of empowerment. In this context, the caste census is not a progressive policy but a cynical ploy in a game of fragmentation politics. The masses are once again being drawn into a cycle of identity politics, manipulated under the guise of upliftment, while structural inequalities and governance failures remain unaddressed.

The ruling party’s decision to resurrect caste in the national discourse isn’t about empowering the marginalised. It is about dividing the electorate, securing votes, and retaining power. And in that, the ruling party and the opposition parties seem to be playing the same game, one where the people are always the pawns.

- Fardeen is a Research Scholar and Dr. Karamala Areesh Kumar is Head, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy (IRP and PP), St. Joseph’s University, Bengaluru.

Disclaimer- The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors in their personal capacity. They do not reflect or represent the official stance, policies, or position of The Mooknayak or its editorial team.